The chairman of the Presidential Advisory Committee on Exports and Industrial Development (PACEID), Odrek Rwabwogo, has described China’s decision to grant zero-tariff access to 53 African countries as a major opening — but warned that Uganda must treat it as more than a trading opportunity.
Instead, he argues, it should become a deliberate strategy for industrial learning and domestic capacity building.
“So, when we sell to China, we should sell with the intent to learn simpler technologies,” Rwabwogo said in an interview with Daily Star. “Trade must strengthen manufacturing at home.”
His remarks follow an announcement published by China Global Television Network (CGTN) stating that China will implement zero-tariff measures for 53 African countries with diplomatic ties beginning May 1, 2026. The initiative also promises expanded market access through mechanisms such as upgraded “green channels” and joint economic partnership agreements.
A Door Opens — But Strategy Matters
Uganda’s exports to China were valued at approximately US$92.63 million in 2024, largely consisting of raw agricultural commodities and natural resources, including timber, coffee, oil seeds, fish, and dried chillies.
For Rwabwogo, that export profile exposes both opportunity and vulnerability.
“Selling is not enough,” he said. “If we remain exporters of raw materials, we remain price takers. We must use this access to move up the value chain.”
He emphasised that zero tariffs do not eliminate competition. China’s market is vast but highly competitive, driven by scale, efficiency, and price sensitivity.
“You strengthen your capacity and your ammunition,” he said. “Africa’s strongest weapon is its own market. Sell abroad, yes — but grow and protect African enterprises. Those are the firms that will compete globally tomorrow.”
Learning From China’s Manufacturing Discipline
Rwabwogo pointed to China’s industrial transformation as a lesson in execution and scale, noting that the country accounts for roughly 30–35 percent of global manufacturing output.
He argued that Uganda should view trade engagement with China as a form of industrial apprenticeship.
“This is not just about revenue. It’s about knowledge transfer, production systems, and discipline,” he said. “We must study how they manufacture, aggregate, package, and distribute — and adapt those lessons locally.”
Understanding Chinese consumer preferences, language, regulatory systems, and cultural expectations, he added, will be crucial for sustainable market penetration.
Value Addition the Missing Link
Rwabwogo identified sesame (simsim), eucalyptus timber, coffee, fish, and beef as priority sectors where Uganda could scale up production to meet Chinese demand.
Uganda reportedly produces about 120,000 metric tonnes of simsim annually, with export orders hovering around 100,000 metric tonnes. Yet China’s demand operates at far larger volumes and often at competitive price points.
“China buys in bulk. That means aggregation is critical. But more importantly, value addition must happen here,” he said.
He urged a shift from exporting raw coffee beans to roasted and packaged coffee, and from unprocessed sesame and fish to higher-value finished products.
China’s expanding coffee culture, he noted, offers a growing niche market — provided Uganda positions itself beyond raw commodity supply.
Untapped Potential in Fish and Beef
Despite being a leading producer of tilapia, China’s domestic supply struggles to meet its vast consumption and export needs. That gap, Rwabwogo said, creates space for Uganda, particularly as fish farming requires relatively low capital entry compared to heavy industry.
Similarly, beef exports present opportunity. Although pork remains China’s dominant meat reserve, domestic cattle production does not fully satisfy demand.
“These are areas where Uganda can expand production strategically,” he said. “But we must ensure we are competitive.”
Structural Barriers Remain
Rwabwogo acknowledged that Uganda’s ambition will depend on addressing persistent bottlenecks — notably high transport costs, energy prices, and limited industrial infrastructure.
“In a market defined by huge volumes and low margins, inefficiency is fatal,” he warned. “Zero tariffs alone will not make us competitive.”
He concluded that China’s zero-tariff policy should not be seen as a windfall, but as a test of Uganda’s industrial resolve.
“This is an opportunity,” he said. “But whether it transforms our economy depends on how strategically we use it.”
