Introduction
The people of Iran as the bedrock of the Islamic Revolution have endured 47 years of ongoing cost-of-living crisis because of 47 years of sanctions. They have endured hardships of low economic growth and hyperinflation, with patience.
The Imam had developed Vision-2025, which needs to be carried forward because there are unfulfilled public expectations.
20-Year Vision 2025 (2005-2025)
Now that Iranians know that the overextended 40-Day War would certainly force the enemy to flee from Iran and West Asia, critical and creative thoughts need to be applied to Imam Khamenei’s 20-Year Vision 2025. The Vision as the continuity of the Economic Development Plan of 2005, outlines the roadmap for economic, political, social, and cultural developments to be achieved. Its objectives are to become an advanced country and to achieve the number-one rank in economic, scientific, and technological progress among the 28 nations in West Asia and Southeast Asia.
The essential substance of Vision 2025 are:
The realisation of the ideals and principles of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic. Development founded on revolutionary values with emphasis on social justice. Reliance on human resources and social capital in national production. To be ‘Secure, independent, and powerful with a defence system based on multilateral deterrence and alliance between the government and the population.’
Aspiration towards food security, poverty eradication, appropriate income distribution, strong family foundations, collaborative social mentality, and national pride. Emphasis on knowledge production, economic growth, and full employment. Advancement of intellectual modernism. Productive interactions with the rest of the world.
In the legislation of the development plans and annual budgets the quantitative macroeconomic indices to be factored such as gross national product, employment, inflation, defensive capabilities and more.
Leveraging socio-political capital of the 40-Day War
The people of Iran demonstrated their patriotism with feet-on-street in spite of cold wintry Ramadan nights for 170-days-Plus and gave their government the mandate: NO SURRENDER. This is unique socio-political capital as strategic unity, which needs to be leveraged to boost Vision-2025 through greater participation by people, greater coordination of government departments, and embedding the Vision in macroeconomic documents and policies – to fulfil unfulfilled business.
The unfulfilled business of Vision-2025 are:
To increase national productive capacity with the full involvement of the entire nation. The development of the modern industrial system needs to be accelerated. Innovation with natural and artificial intelligence is critical to new industries (small to large). All-round comprehensive modernization is a long-term objective with incremental short-term gains with focus on increasing production tensions and reducing personality tensions. It needs ongoing reforms to the existing institutional framework in response to changing objective conditions.
Modernisation includes large-scale agricultural production while remembering that the Persian Empire was the first in developing food security with the seeds that it imported from its faraway corners.
Impending new challenges
After decades of sanctions Iran has to prepare for its proper open integration in the global economy. Iran applied for World Trade Organization (WTO) membership in 1996 but because of USA opposition and sanctions the application has been stalled though Iran has the largest economy of non-member states. USA’s coercive ‘diplomacy’ is about to collapse. Iran’s membership will entail new investments (domestic and foreign) in new and existing industries (mining, manufacturing, service, and agriculture). The role of Khatimul an-Biya will be enhanced.
This will help in the diversification of its economy, job creation, wider distribution of wealth, and increase in living standards. It will have to lower tariffs to make textiles and manufactured goods more competitive and exportable. It will accelerate the development of mechanical engineering, manufacturing and more. It will expand its productive base and supply of consumer goods for domestic and foreign consumption.
Iran will face the challenge of demand-side management and address aggregate issues as well as supply-side management and resolve structural issues. Iran’s domestic demand can be the strategic foundation of production, distribution, circulation, use, and consumption (rural and urban) that can be expanded regionally and globally. This demands modern transport infrastructure, freight rail, logistics hubs, and new urbanization as smart cities.
Improvement to industrial policy
The current industrial policy may be improved by a shift from over-centralisation to competitive interactions among different ministries, provinces, local governments, cooperatives, private companies and philanthropic capital. The non-central government entities face fiscal constraints and tight geopolitical restrictions. This allows for multiple actors to implement Vision-2025 creatively in national interests even in wartime economic conditions. It encourages competition between central, provincial, and local governments with shared capacities and capabilities.
Provinces and cities
Provinces and cities control resources like land and infrastructure to support new industries (including start-ups) that originate in their legislative spaces. This may allow for the broader evolution of local industrial sub-strategy and innovation, with local population participation while economic development and national security are already fused.
Innovation and regulation tensions
AI innovation, which originated in the private sector, developed before there could have been public sector AI regulations in the West. There will always be tensions between innovation and regulation, which have to be managed astutely. Allow for risk-tolerant technological alternatives.
For industrial policy to be effective it should have institutions, which encourage competition, innovation, and experimentation. The ability to compete in the current rapid revolution in science, technology, and industry as the world gradually shifts to demilitarised global trade that compete on price, quality, and other merits. Iran has the culture of values that ensure fair trade.
Opportunity for self-development
Vision-2025 offers citizens the opportunity to strive and struggle in unity for their self-development in socio-economic conditions in which their being and consciousness can aspire to higher levels that yield full human freedom to flourish. This is why economic growth with social and cultural development are coupled.
Vision-2025 and decolonial mode of production
Vision-2025 is the decolonial mode of production. Some aspects of the Vision have been achieved, most demonstrably, indigenous weapons that yielded strategic military victory. Other aspects have still to be achieved.
The rank of great leaders
Amongst the rank of great leaders who broke the regional spine of imperialism are Vladimir Lenin (Russia: 1917), Mao Zedong (China: 1950), Fidel Castro (Cuba: 1959), Ho Chi Ming (Vietnam: 1975), and Imam Khamenei (Iran: 2026) – in a period of 109 years.
History is not measured by the personal lifespan of any great leader but by the phases of the historical processes released by the leader. After their deaths the people continue the struggle.
Productive base supports strategic commitments
In Iran the productive base supports and finances strategic commitments and sustains their strength. The base needs to be constantly expanded. Hence, the need for constant reform of industrial policy.
Imam Khamenei’s Vision-2025 provides for the strengthening of the productive base to support Iran’s strategic commitments.
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The purpose of the series of articles on Imam Khamenei is to explain the development of his character as being immersed in the development of the history of Iran. It is an intersection of biography and history.
By Haroon Aziz, South Africa
